The riding has swung between the Liberals, New Democrats and Conservatives for quite some time, but one constant has been Liberal incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal: win or lose (he lost twice), he has carried the partyâs banner here in every election since 2004. But the GTA alone wonât be enough to put the party in power: Conservatives also will need to defeat Liberals in Atlantic Canada, southwestern and eastern Ontario and in the suburbs of Western Canadian cities like Winnipeg and Vancouver. Itâs just one of the many suburban Greater Vancouver ridings the Conservatives need to win if they are to form a government; the party is hoping to take it back with a re-match between Hogg and former cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay. It is hard to imagine a Conservative majority government without an MP from Burlington. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are counting on Quebecers to help them win a majority government. The New Democrats were shut out in Atlantic Canada in 2015 and have struggled in a series of provincial elections since. The NDP holds seats in both the northern parts of these two provinces and in the urban centres of Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina. Held by Conservative Cathy McLeod since 2008, the riding was a relatively close three-way race in 2015, with the Conservatives taking 35 per cent of the vote and NDP and Liberals taking about 30 per cent apiece. Judy Klassen, who scored an upset for the Manitoba Liberals in the 2016 provincial election here, will be carrying the federal partyâs banner this time. The Conservativesâ support in the riding dropped only marginally last time and the Liberals do not have an incumbent. The Liberalsâ Julie Dzerowicz wrestled the riding back in 2015 by a margin of just three points; sheâll face off against Cash again in October. This web site is the creation of P.J. But the Conservativesâ victory here in 2011 and the Ontario PCsâ win in 2018 suggest the riding could swing again. A bastion of former Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois leader Gilles Duceppe, the riding went to the NDPâs HÃ©lÃ¨ne LaverdiÃ¨re in 2011 and stayed with her in 2015. And having earned less than one-third of the vote last time, the NDP will be hard-pressed to hold the seat. The NDPâs return to Newfoundland and Labrador depends on Jack Harris, who won St. Johnâs East for the party in 2008 and 2011. But it has been a bellwether since 1993, voting with the party that has formed government ever since. The Conservatives are banking on the local profile of Richard Lehoux, a former mayor, to bring the seat back into the Conservative fold. BEACHES-EAST YORK Toronto-Danforth (ALREADY HAPPENED) Candidates from the Toronto-Danforth riding will hold four debates, taking place Oct. 1 (COMPLETED), Oct. 2 (COMPLETED), Oct. 8., Oct. 9 and Oct. 10. While that could make this riding low-hanging fruit for the Liberals, the Conservatives also have high hopes in former Trois-RiviÃ¨res mayor Yves LÃ©vesque. She might be helped by the mixed election results in the riding over the last two elections. Advance polls are now open in York Centre and Toronto Centre with a extra safety measures in place. Trois-RiviÃ¨res was a Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois stronghold for nearly 20 years until the New Democrats won it in 2011. Voters in Quebec have been fickle in recent years. The New Democrats won the seat with just 28.7 per cent of the vote in 2015 and the Liberals do not need much of a boost to take it for the first time since 1980. But the party also says it believes it could make inroads into new territory, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. I do expect the Liberals to eke out 1 or 2 seats in the 416, but this will not be one of them. Safe NDP call! St. Johnâs East, Brampton East, Davenport, Essex, Hamilton EastâStoney Creek, LondonâFanshawe, ChurchillâKeewatinook Aski, ElmwoodâTranscona, ReginaâLewvan, SurreyâNewton, KingsâHants, SydneyâVictoria, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, KanataâCarleton, OrlÃ©ans, PeterboroughâKawartha, Cambridge, Kitchener SouthâHespeler, KildonanâSt. Closed Captioning and Described Video is available for many CBC-TV shows offered on CBC Gem. The judgment of those voters on the governmentâs approach to reconciliation likely will decide this fall whether the Liberals are able to take a seat theyâve only won twice over the last 65 years. The party is hopeful it can win some of them back. Marco Mendocino won a closely-fought race against former finance minister Joe Oliver in 2015, returning EglintonâLawrence to its Liberal roots. Interior, where the pipeline issue plays differently than it does in the rest of the province. It has been a swing riding at the provincial level over the last decade; the provincial NDP took it by a margin of 42 points in 2018. Outside of Quebec, where its support has collapsed, the NDP could be pushed out of some of its traditional strongholds in this fallâs election. The future of the Peopleâs Party of Canada likely depends on Maxime Bernierâs ability to win re-election in the riding heâs made into one of the safest Conservative seats in the country since his first win in 2006. The good news for Philpott is that this part of the country is one of the few that has elected an Independent MP in the last 50 years: Tony Roman won York North as an Independent in 1984. What does the future for the NDP under Jagmeet Singh look like? The urban centre of Vancouver generally has been friendly territory for Liberals over the years, so Jody Wilson-Raybould was cruising for re-election â until the SNC-Lavalin affair blew everything up. If the Liberals can secure the progressive vote in the riding, they should be able to hold off the Conservativesâ James Cumming in his second run against Boissonnault. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region. The New Democrats have had more success in downtown Toronto in the past, though they lost all of their seats in the city in the last election. LaverdiÃ¨re was a giant-killer when she took down Duceppe in this sovereignist fortress, but the election of Guilbault would demonstrate how Quebecâs politics are shifting toward a focus on the climate question rather than the "national question". New Democrats have held the area without interruption since 2005. If they do, no seat in the country is more likely to flip to them than Victoria. If previous provincial and federal elections are any indication, expect a high profile Liberal candidate to run in this riding and win handedly. The suburban region around Montreal is coveted territory for both the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois and the Liberals â and the key to winning here is to pick up the votes the NDP has left on the table. Toronto Centre was held by former finance minister Bill Morneau, who resigned last month in the wake of the WE Charity scandal. Its construction will create jobs in the Interior and the natural resource sector plays a bigger role in the local economy there â factors that could help Lake win the seat. When Cambridge swings, it tends to swing for good. Wilson-Raybould won comfortably in 2015, but the NDP and Conservative candidates still managed a quarter of the vote each. David and parts of St. Andrew—St. The Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc are all hoping to benefit from the collapse of the NDP in Quebec â and those hopes intersect in Saint-HyacintheâBagot. The Liberals won it back in 2015 with Andrew Leslie, but the retired lieutenant-general is not running for re-election. If Singh is going to deliver previously untapped voters to the NDP, then he has to win here. Interior and the Fraser Valley, The 60 ridings that tell the story of where the election will be won and lost, CBC's Journalistic Standards and Practices. But after losing most of its seats in the province in 2015, does the party have a near-term future in Quebec? Post-final debate, the Liberals will likely get a smidge of a boost. That helped the NDP win in a close three-way race in ReginaâLewvan, but the seat could be up for grabs now after the party booted Erin Weir from caucus for allegedly inappropriate behaviour. King-Vaughan The King-Vaughan riding was flipped […] If the New Democrats are going to reconnect with their labour base, then this riding â in which about 16 per cent of the labour force works in manufacturing â should be high on their list. I'm sure the PCs will up their vote here but they wont win in this very urban riding. While election day is officially on Oct. The contest is largely between the NDP and the Conservatives in Essex, but the resonance of the NDPâs criticisms of the Liberal governmentâs approach to free trade will be tested. York Centre By-Election. If they pull off a win here, the Liberals are probably on course to stay in power â and the Conservatives are likely heading back to the opposition benches. But the candidacy of Jane Philpott as an Independent makes this riding a wild card. The party hasn’t held Toronto Centre since 1993. The by-election in York Centre is as a result of the resignation of Michael Levitt, a Liberal first elected in 2015. Toet defeated the NDPâs Jim Maloway by 300 votes in 2011. Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. When the Liberals won South SurreyâWhite Rock in a 2017 byelection, it was the first time since 1949 that the party had captured a seat in the area. In neighbouring B.C., the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion finds its highest level of support in the B.C. Theyâre also targeting diverse ridings where they think Jagmeet Singh, the countryâs first visible-minority leader of a major party, could attract new voters to the NDP. A close race last time, it will not take much for the Conservatives to win this seat again â the kind of seat they absolutely must win if they are to form a majority government, as Doug Fordâs PCs did in 2018. The Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois won a majority of the provinceâs federal seats in 2008; the New Democrats took most of them in 2011 before being pushed to one side by the Liberals in 2015. After scoring provincial breakthroughs in Atlantic Canada and a federal byelection win on Vancouver Island, the Greens are poised for what could be their best election ever. This is an easy NDP gain. If the Liberals are banking on holding any seats in Alberta, Edmonton Centre should be right at the top of the list. The New Democrats in Regina and Saskatoon were hamstrung for years by rural-urban ridings that combined parts of the cities with wide sections of conservative-voting rural areas, but that changed in 2015 when the two cities got urban ridings of their own. The last time a party won the seat over two consecutive elections was in 1997. But the Conservatives captured just 6.5 per cent of the vote here in 2015, suggesting the contest will again be a two-horse race between Whalen and Harris. But a few ridings in Ontario that otherwise would have been high on the Conservativesâ list of soft targets might be harder for them to win than previously thought â thanks to the unpopularity of Doug Fordâs Progressive Conservative government. Election Prediction Project/Projet D'�lection Pr�vision - www.electionprediction.org It was close last time: MaryAnn Mihychuk beat the Conservative candidate by less than three percentage points. If the Conservatives canât take this seat back, even a minority government might be out of the picture for Scheer. Paul, South SurreyâWhite Rock, StevestonâRichmond East, Lac-Saint-Jean, Louis-HÃ©bert, Trois-RiviÃ¨res, La Pointe-de-lâÃle, Mirabel, BerthierâMaskinongÃ©, Drummond, BeloeilâChambly, LaurierâSainte-Marie, Saint-HyacintheâBagot, Don Valley North, EglintonâLawrence, Etobicoke North, ScarboroughâAgincourt, York Centre, AuroraâOak RidgesâRichmond Hill, KingâVaughan, Richmond Hill, Whitby, Burlington, Milton, MississaugaâErin Mills, MississaugaâLakeshore, Calgary Centre, Edmonton Centre, KamloopsâThompsonâCariboo, KelownaâLake Country, MissionâMatsquiâFraser Canyon, Burnaby NorthâSeymour, North Vancouver, Saint JohnâRothesay, Charlottetown, Fredericton, Guelph, EsquimaltâSaanichâSooke, Victoria, MarkhamâStouffville, Vancouver Granville, Beauce, Audience Relations, CBC P.O. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding is facing a tough challenge from new Green leader Annamie Paul. Patrick, Fort York, when ridings were redistributed to match their federal counterparts. It also had been held by the Ontario Liberals since 1985 â until last year, when the Ontario PCs took it with 50 per cent of the vote. The old downtown City of Toronto ridings will be a wash of orange to prevent the provincial risk of a blue majority. The CBC poll tracker now has the Liberals on 0 seats in Toronto since the NDP have taken first in the polls. Can the Liberals hold on in a three-way race? This riding prediction has not been updated since Dec 2017 - a lot has happened in the last 5 1/2 months. Many NDP signs across the riding combined with a non-existent PC campaign (their campaign office was in darkness at 7pm on a Monday night) that it only makes sense to switch this riding from Liberal to at least TCTC. Quebec was key to the NDPâs rise to Official Opposition status in the 2011 election. Pipeline access is an important issue for oil industry workers in Alberta, for Atlantic Canadians who pay high gas prices and for British Columbians who worry about their vulnerable coastline. Thatâs one reason why Saint JohnâRothesay could flip to the Conservatives â along with the ridingâs generally blue history and the fact that the New Brunswick PCs won all but one of the Saint John regionâs seats in the 2018 provincial election. Box 500 Station A Toronto, ON Canada, M5W 1E6. Or will the Conservatives benefit from a split in the vote and win a seat the Ontario PCs secured by a 22-point margin in 2018? Since 1957, the riding anchored by the city of Peterborough has voted with the party that formed government in 19 of 20 general elections â making PeterboroughâKawartha the quintessential bellwether riding and an obvious target for the Conservatives. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding, is pictured on Thursday October 22, 2020. But if the Conservatives are able to break through somewhere in the Greater Montreal area, Mirabel might be where they do it. The third-best riding in the country for Greens over the last three elections, EsquimaltâSaanichâSooke is a top target for the party on Vancouver Island. In 2015, Stephen Fuhr quadrupled the Liberalsâ vote share from 2011, winning the seat from the Conservatives. 2014 Election Result:Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton, Ontario Provincial Election - 2018 The urban areas in southwestern Ontario tend to be closely-fought three-way battles between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP. On that day, every Toronto Centre voter gets to choose who will be their representative. But Brison resigned at the beginning of the year, touching off a sequence of events that ended with the departure of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal cabinet and caucus and the partyâs subsequent drop in support. The NDPâs Daniel Blaikie beat Conservative incumbent Lawrence Toet by a margin of just 61 votes in 2015. But the seat was captured provincially by the Ford PCs in 2018 by a narrow margin and the ridingâs profile makes it one that likely would end up in the Conservative camp if they win a majority government â as was the case in 2011. After Erin Mills, MississaugaâLakeshore has been the next most favourable riding for the Conservatives in Mississauga â which makes it a must-win for Andrew Scheer. Marie-France Lalonde, who has held the seat for the provincial Liberals since 2014, will try to take his place. The Liberals swept all of Torontoâs seats in the last election, but both Stephen Harper in 2011 and Doug Ford in 2018 were able to win in places like Etobicoke and Scarborough. I've lived in Church and Wellesley before, and despite this riding having a very active NDP and some areas where the party does quite well, I expect this to hold as Liberal. There are 338 federal ridings in Canada and voters will be going to the polls in each on Oct. 21, 2019. Theyâre running Eddie Orrell, PC MLA since 2011, and are hoping to repeat some of the successes the provincial Tories have enjoyed on Cape Breton Island. The P.E.I. The loss of Rosedale does help the NDP, but with Wynne moving the Liberals leftwards and having the type of policies that sell well in downtown Toronto, I suspect they will hold this. Morris hasn't proven compelling enough a campaigner to hold out against the NDP wave. Before that victory by former mayor and 20-year B.C. The New Democrats are hoping they will not end up on the bottom of that pile, particularly in ridings where they lack incumbents. A road classification system designates streets into different groups or classes according to the type of service each group is intended to provide. The Conservatives are angling for a comeback here, which should offer a real test of the partyâs overtures to the Quebec nationalist vote. The Liberals took most of them back in 2015, but if Andrew Scheer is to replicate Harperâs success he needs to win seats like Kitchener SouthâHespeler. A manufacturing centre won by the Ontario Tories in six of the last seven provincial elections, Cambridge is the sort of riding the Conservatives need to win back if theyâre going to form government. Voters in two Toronto ridings head to the polls today in the first electoral test of the federal Liberal government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Liberals, Bloc and Conservatives are all covetously eyeing those seats â and all three parties have the potential for gains. The Conservatives will be hard-pressed to win most of the seats FranÃ§ois Legaultâs party captured a year ago, but they could paint some parts of the province Tory blue for the first time since the 1980s. Support for the Green Party is strongest on Vancouver Island and thatâs where it has its best hopes for gains. One-fourth of its population lists Chinese as their mother tongue and nearly two-thirds of its residents are immigrants: Don Valley North is a very diverse riding. Calling this for the NDP. With a significant francophone population, OrlÃ©ans was long a Liberal stronghold: the party lost it only twice throughout the 20th century. New Democrats win the areaâs two Burnaby seats in 2017 and could give the federal New Democrats an issue to rally around. And even where the NDP does have incumbents, the party canât take anything for granted. The Liberals more than quintupled their share of the vote in KildonanâSt. BerthierâMaskinongÃ© was one of the rare ridings in Quebec where the NDPâs share of the vote actually increased between 2011 and 2015 â largely thanks to Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the parachute candidate from Ottawa who made her home in the riding after unexpectedly winning it in the NDPâs orange wave. You can vote in advance polls up to and … At 47 per cent, StevestonâRichmond East has the third-most Chinese Canadians of any riding in the country. Still, it will be difficult for the Liberals to win any seats in Alberta â including in downtown Calgary, the financial epicentre of the provinceâs oil industry. While the New Democrats have had some individual wins in the region â they won a portion of this riding in 2011 and the provincial NDP holds the area â this is another riding that the party is hoping it can win thanks in part to Jagmeet Singhâs appeal. One of the ridings with the youngest voters in the country, ChurchillâKeewatinook Aski has the most residents who claim First Nations identity (70.3 per cent) of any riding in Canada. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. The party is hoping to regain some of the seats it lost in the region four years ago, but it is facing an uphill climb. Interior and the Lower Mainland. A lot of seats are up for grabs in Quebec this fall because of the NDPâs collapse in support in the province. When Doug Fordâs Progressive Conservatives won a big majority government in 2018âs Ontario election, he did so by winning most of the parts of the province that Andrew Scheerâs Conservatives need to win to secure a majority government of their own. Though that sure didn't pull through federally in 2015; and at a notional 60%+ in 2014 (even if that's skewed by everything coming from one safe riding), it doesn't look *likely* to do so provincially in 2018, either. His performance will be a test of the Conservative strategy of banking on high-profile local candidates to make inroads in francophone, nationalist ridings like Trois-RiviÃ¨res â which voted for the CAQ in last yearâs provincial election, as well as Mario Dumontâs ADQ in its short-lived 2007 breakthrough. Each time he tallied more than 57 per cent of the vote. coast â where the pipeline ends and the oil tankers begin. 2019 Federal Campaign Polls Date : Polling firm Method Sample : LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC: Leader 2019-10-20 Nanos TEL 800 32 33 21 6 7 2 Con +1 2019-10-20 Mainstreet IVR 2032 32 32 18 6 8 3 Égalité/Tie 2019-10-19 EKOS IVR 1994 34 30 18 8 5 4 Lib +4 2019-10-19 Research Co. INT 957 32 31 19 8 7 2 Lib +1 2019-10-19 Ipsos New Democrats say theyâre optimistic about the odds of some of their former MPs winning back the seats they lost four years ago. But if the Greens are casting about more widely, they should look to ridings where their provincial cousins have had success. In 1924, the riding was broken into Toronto East Centre, Toronto West Centre and Toronto South.. A riding covering much the same area was created in 1933 named "Rosedale" after the wealthy neighbourhood of Rosedale. The Conservativesâ odds are slim, but the CAQ has its only presence on the island of Montreal here. The CBC poll tracker now has the Liberals on 0 seats in Toronto since the NDP have taken first in the polls. History. Will the pipeline help or hurt them this time? Rosedale is out of the riding, there is no incumbent and the Liberals are out of the game province-wide. Residents in two Toronto ridings will head to the polls on Monday in a byelection. Depending on how the vote divvies up, there is the potential for Vancouver Granville to become a four-cornered contest this time â one that could go in any direction. Had it gone ahead, the Energy East pipeline would have supplied the Irving refineries in Saint John and the federal government has been blamed in part for the cancellation of this project. Southwestern Ontario was an important part of Stephen Harperâs majority win in 2011, when his party captured the small urban centres in this part of the province. Sheâll be facing off against former Liberal candidate and leadership hopeful David Bertschi, who will be carrying the Conservative banner this time. Voting in two federal byelections is underway in Toronto Centre and York Centre. NDP now has momentum and a great lot of steam. ... Biden stand in the polls 1 week from U.S. election. One of the two was Calgary Centre, where former Alberta Liberal MLA Kent Hehr prevailed by a margin of just 1.2 percentage points over the Conservativesâ Joan Crockatt. The Conservatives won it by a wide margin in 2011 but lost it by just six points in 2015 to the Liberalsâ Marwan Tabbara. The Liberals captured York Centre in 2015 by a narrow 2.9-point margin, taking it back from the Conservatives. This is Annamie Paul’s message to all residents of Toronto Centre, as … While TC be one of the last Liberal holdouts, it will be interesting to see how the NDP does here. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. We are also sticking by Jane Philpott in her riding on a personal vote, though independent bids are quite difficult. Ãric Grenier Toss up at this point. That victory marked the first time the Liberals had won in Kelowna since 1968 â the last time the Liberals were mounting their first campaign under a leader named Trudeau. With more seats than most provinces, the Greater Toronto Area decides elections. B.C. Our York-City Centre coverage area is hosting three 100 Debates events, including Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre and Toronto-St. Paul's. This is another riding the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will traverse, but the seat straddles the line between the B.C. Former finance minister Bill Morneau resigned as Toronto Centre’s MP this past August, and Liberal Michael Levitt stepped down as the MP for York Centre in September, which required the calling of byelections in those two ridings.. The fact that the Liberals wonât have an incumbent on the ballot improves the NDPâs chances. Centre Toronto riding was first created in 1872 from portions of West Toronto and East Toronto.In 1903, the name was changed to Toronto Centre. Ward 13 Councillor Office. Federally, however, Davenport was solidly Liberal from 1962 until 2011, when the NDPâs Andrew Cash made a breakthrough. 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